Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 0.403389 0.461764 0.525095 0.598836 0.682272 0.773681 0.881344
2025-08-03 0.331683 0.412039 0.505978 0.623635 0.766777 0.934985 1.147342
2025-08-10 0.259514 0.348007 0.458904 0.607471 0.800626 1.042511 1.367585
2025-08-17 0.201201 0.290306 0.409610 0.579948 0.815638 1.128795 1.574701
2025-08-24 0.163274 0.252495 0.379643 0.572323 0.854804 1.251193 1.846331
2025-08-31 0.133265 0.220231 0.351755 0.562631 0.889067 1.371094 2.131305
2025-09-07 0.114764 0.201820 0.340979 0.576067 0.958660 1.550581 2.526855
2025-09-14 0.093256 0.174412 0.311421 0.555046 0.971346 1.645177 2.805558
2025-09-21 0.078331 0.155302 0.292123 0.547397 1.003908 1.774448 3.155321
2025-09-28 0.065721 0.137876 0.272668 0.536026 1.027873 1.891720 3.499186
2025-10-05 0.058999 0.130353 0.269836 0.554012 1.105952 2.110616 4.044217
2025-10-12 0.051309 0.119351 0.258468 0.553842 1.150012 2.273714 4.508502
2025-10-19 0.045568 0.111648 0.252990 0.565740 1.221600 2.501302 5.130087
2025-10-26 0.040831 0.105231 0.249139 0.580513 1.301443 2.755402 5.835736
2025-11-02 0.034114 0.092741 0.229919 0.559249 1.303691 2.857454 6.255900
2025-11-09 0.028004 0.080337 0.208571 0.529520 1.283141 2.910341 6.583055
2025-11-16 0.024035 0.072531 0.196609 0.519452 1.304757 3.054367 7.119367
2025-11-23 0.020633 0.065449 0.185083 0.508408 1.322376 3.191815 7.658462
2025-11-30 0.018686 0.062046 0.182369 0.518978 1.393172 3.456755 8.512945
2025-12-07 0.015779 0.055060 0.168730 0.498774 1.385003 3.539209 8.960907
2025-12-14 0.013751 0.050293 0.160293 0.491026 1.407238 3.695939 9.601363
2025-12-21 0.011914 0.045664 0.151323 0.480167 1.419579 3.829977 10.202944
2025-12-28 0.011075 0.044221 0.151595 0.495929 1.506060 4.158420 11.319551